Understanding and Addressing the Issue of the High School Dropout Age
Defining Dropout and Calculating Rates
Dropout figures also vary depending upon which dropout or school completion measure is used. The variance occurs because local, state, and federal calculations often use different age groups, data, and definitions in classifying dropouts (U.S. GAO, 2002). Since 1992, states have been reporting dropout information to NCES at the school district level. NCES has disaggregated dropout rates into three categories: "event," "status," and "cohort." Each category provides different information on dropout populations. There are several ways to calculate the dropout rate, but there is no ideal measurement for all situations.
The event dropout rate is the proportion of students in a given age range who leave school each year without completing a high school program. The event dropout rate measures dropouts in a given year, which is useful for studies that focus on a specified age range who have dropped out of corresponding grades in the previous year (Smith et al., 1996). The concern with this method is that it can be misleading because annual calculations yield the lowest numbers of any dropout calculations, which are rarely audited for accountability (Viadero, 2001). This method determines dropouts based on a one-year figure, but a four-year figure produces more accurate results because it can track student progress.
The status dropout rate provides cumulative data on dropouts among all 16- through 24-years-olds who are not enrolled in school and who have not earned a high school diploma or its equivalent (Smith et al., 1996). This method takes into account all individuals, regardless of when they last attended school. However, it cannot indicate how well schools are preventing students from dropping out in a given year. Data derived for this model comes from Census Bureau surveys, which allow for self-reporting bias to produce inaccurate figures.
The cohort dropout rate measures a group of students over a specified period of time. This rate is based on repeated measures of a cohort of students sharing similar experiences and reveals how many students starting in a specific grade drop out over time (Smith et al., 1996). "The cohort rate follows an identifiable group of students over time and tracks their progress through the system" (Allensworth & Easton, 2001, p. 7). This method provides a good indication of a ninth grader's chance of graduating in a particular district.
The disparity in dropout rate definitions has caused some confusion. For example, in 1993 the Council of Great City Schools (CGCS) conducted a dropout analysis that raised concerns about the way dropout rates were being reported. The 1994 CGCS report revealed that Chicago had a 45.2 percent four-year dropout rate, New York City had a 15.4 percent rate, and Buffalo had a dropout rate of merely 4.3 percent (as cited in Fossey, 1996). All three of these districts are similar in their demographic makeup, and all three have percentages of minority children and children living in poverty. Richard Fossey concluded in his report that it was unrealistic that the dropout rate in Chicago was three times higher than that of New York, or that Buffalo has a dropout rate one-tenth of Chicago's. The discrepancy was due to the variance in reporting and calculating rates. Analyzing data provides insight into the dropout problem, but it is traditionally difficult to measure, especially in urban areas where students move from school to school (Cohen, 2003).
